Thursday, March 27, 2008
NL poker--Why Randomizing Your Raise Size is Often Ineffect
In “No Limit Hold’em: Theory and Practice,” under the chapter titled “Sizing your Pre-flop Raises” (p. 111) David Sklansky and Ed Miller advise against automatically making uniform or “table standard” pre-flop raises, suggesting that by doing so the player gives up too many advantages that come with being able to vary his or her bet size. They then provide the counter argument for this point, which is that varying your pre-flop bet size may provide too much information about your hand to your opponents, allowing them to play much more accurately and reducing your expected rate of return. Sklansky and Miller then suggest that you need only occasionally randomize your play in order to overcome this disadvantage, and while their advice does seem sound it is extremely rare for players to randomize their bet sizes in the majority of hold’em games.
There are two types of environments in poker. There are information saturated environments, wherein players interact with one another frequently and a lot of information may be exchanged between players. In this sort of an environment there may be quite a bit of value in playing in such a way as to manipulate an opponent’s perception of your play, as you can leverage those perceptions for gains in future hands. Secondly, there are information sparse environments, wherein players interact with one another rarely. In these sorts of environments there is often very little value in attempting to change your opponent’s perceptions of your play, as you will have little to no opportunity to leverage those perceptions for future gains. Note that an environment is never simply information saturated or information sparse, but can be either strongly or weakly so as well as somewhere in between.
Most no-limit games are very information sparse environments, largely because very few hands are shown down. For example, a player who plays 15% of his or her hands and sees a showdown 25% of the time he or she sees a flop will take as few as or less than 3 hands to showdown for every 100 hands he or she plays. Many poker games, particularly at the low and mid stakes levels also operate in a “revolving door” atmosphere, where many opponents will sit for short periods and then are never or very rarely seen again, giving you little opportunity to leverage information you gain about them and giving them little opportunity to attempt to leverage information they gain about you. This may additionally mean that there is little incentive for your opponents to pay attention to and remember the particulars of your play, and much of the information you might provide them with will simply be ignored.
What this means is that there is often little or no value in randomizing your bet size with different holdings to try and convince your opposition that you are raising with a somewhat balanced range. This is because your opponent’s perception of what you are doing is not based off what you are doing in actuality, but what he or she believes you are doing. In information sparse environments your opponents will seldom treat you as an individual, as your opponents will receive very little information about how you, as an individual, play. Instead, your opponent’s assumptions on what your actions are likely to represent will be based on what your opponent believes players who he or she perceives as being similar to you are likely to do, on average.
Note that being unable to effectively alter how your opponents perceive your actions does not mean that you should never vary your bet size, as different sized raises may have drastically different rates of return based on how your opponents will interpret and react to those raise sizes. This only means that it is usually ineffective to randomize your bet size in an attempt to alter how your opponent’s will perceive your actions. Most opponents, for example, will treat your range as being one thing when you raise a large amount and another thing when you raise a smaller amount. There will be little or no correlation between what you are actually raising with at each raise size and what your opponent's will perceive your raise size as representing, which will be based on what the community does as a whole. When very little communication occurs between players, it is often best to simply play your hand for the highest immediate rate of return based on what you believe your opponents are likely to do, and so in these environments very little manipulation or balanced play on your part is necessary, or even possible, as it is extremely difficult to inform your opponents to be aware that you are randomizing or balancing your play.
As an example, it may be suboptimal to make small, pot-building raises with small pocket pairs, or larger field-clearing raises with overpairs if your opponents will often correctly perceive these actions as representing the hand you hold. Randomizing what sorts of hands you make particular raise sizes with will have no impact on what your opponents perceive your raise sizes as representing if they are not aware that your range is randomized. Of course, if your opponents will play no differently against one raise size than another then varying your raise size in such a fashion may yield the highest expected rate of return. It is also worth mentioning that these concepts apply not only to pre-flop raise sizes, but to every bet you make.
Finally, however, it is important to be able to identify information saturated environments where quite a bit of communication does occur between players and where it may be quite advantageous to randomize your bet sizes. Common examples of information saturated environments in no-limit include heads up games and extremely short-handed games which you expect to stay short-handed, or when playing against opponents on a regular basis whom are attentive. In these environments not only can you communicate to your opponents that your range of hands is somewhat randomized when you make a particular action, and therefore have him or her interpret your actions differently, but you will also have many opportunities to leverage those perceptions in the future. How much you bet on earlier streets in no-limit can make an enormous difference in the size of the pot you play on later streets, and so there is quite a bit to be gained by being able to adjust your raise size according to your immediate needs if (and only if) your opponents will actually react in a manner which is advantageous to you.
There are two types of environments in poker. There are information saturated environments, wherein players interact with one another frequently and a lot of information may be exchanged between players. In this sort of an environment there may be quite a bit of value in playing in such a way as to manipulate an opponent’s perception of your play, as you can leverage those perceptions for gains in future hands. Secondly, there are information sparse environments, wherein players interact with one another rarely. In these sorts of environments there is often very little value in attempting to change your opponent’s perceptions of your play, as you will have little to no opportunity to leverage those perceptions for future gains. Note that an environment is never simply information saturated or information sparse, but can be either strongly or weakly so as well as somewhere in between.
Most no-limit games are very information sparse environments, largely because very few hands are shown down. For example, a player who plays 15% of his or her hands and sees a showdown 25% of the time he or she sees a flop will take as few as or less than 3 hands to showdown for every 100 hands he or she plays. Many poker games, particularly at the low and mid stakes levels also operate in a “revolving door” atmosphere, where many opponents will sit for short periods and then are never or very rarely seen again, giving you little opportunity to leverage information you gain about them and giving them little opportunity to attempt to leverage information they gain about you. This may additionally mean that there is little incentive for your opponents to pay attention to and remember the particulars of your play, and much of the information you might provide them with will simply be ignored.
What this means is that there is often little or no value in randomizing your bet size with different holdings to try and convince your opposition that you are raising with a somewhat balanced range. This is because your opponent’s perception of what you are doing is not based off what you are doing in actuality, but what he or she believes you are doing. In information sparse environments your opponents will seldom treat you as an individual, as your opponents will receive very little information about how you, as an individual, play. Instead, your opponent’s assumptions on what your actions are likely to represent will be based on what your opponent believes players who he or she perceives as being similar to you are likely to do, on average.
Note that being unable to effectively alter how your opponents perceive your actions does not mean that you should never vary your bet size, as different sized raises may have drastically different rates of return based on how your opponents will interpret and react to those raise sizes. This only means that it is usually ineffective to randomize your bet size in an attempt to alter how your opponent’s will perceive your actions. Most opponents, for example, will treat your range as being one thing when you raise a large amount and another thing when you raise a smaller amount. There will be little or no correlation between what you are actually raising with at each raise size and what your opponent's will perceive your raise size as representing, which will be based on what the community does as a whole. When very little communication occurs between players, it is often best to simply play your hand for the highest immediate rate of return based on what you believe your opponents are likely to do, and so in these environments very little manipulation or balanced play on your part is necessary, or even possible, as it is extremely difficult to inform your opponents to be aware that you are randomizing or balancing your play.
As an example, it may be suboptimal to make small, pot-building raises with small pocket pairs, or larger field-clearing raises with overpairs if your opponents will often correctly perceive these actions as representing the hand you hold. Randomizing what sorts of hands you make particular raise sizes with will have no impact on what your opponents perceive your raise sizes as representing if they are not aware that your range is randomized. Of course, if your opponents will play no differently against one raise size than another then varying your raise size in such a fashion may yield the highest expected rate of return. It is also worth mentioning that these concepts apply not only to pre-flop raise sizes, but to every bet you make.
Finally, however, it is important to be able to identify information saturated environments where quite a bit of communication does occur between players and where it may be quite advantageous to randomize your bet sizes. Common examples of information saturated environments in no-limit include heads up games and extremely short-handed games which you expect to stay short-handed, or when playing against opponents on a regular basis whom are attentive. In these environments not only can you communicate to your opponents that your range of hands is somewhat randomized when you make a particular action, and therefore have him or her interpret your actions differently, but you will also have many opportunities to leverage those perceptions in the future. How much you bet on earlier streets in no-limit can make an enormous difference in the size of the pot you play on later streets, and so there is quite a bit to be gained by being able to adjust your raise size according to your immediate needs if (and only if) your opponents will actually react in a manner which is advantageous to you.
# posted by bonycamel @ 1:44 AM 
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